Gefährliche Inflationsunterschiede in der Eurozone

Restructuring the Eurozone

This paper suggests that there should be a realignment of the current Eurozone. There has been research to argue that the Eurozone does not fit the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criteria. This might be a contributing factor to the current economic crisis in Europe. I propose, based on results from k-means data clustering, that the Eurozone be divided into three separate regions under the European...

Examining Eurozone Divergence

Mutual excitation in eurozone sovereign CDS

We study selfand cross-excitation of shocks in the Eurozone sovereign CDS market. We adopt a multivariate setting with credit default intensities driven by mutually exciting jump processes, to capture the salient features observed in the data, in particular, the clustering of high default probabilities both in time (over days) and in space (across countries). The feedback between jump events an...

Sovereign Credit Risk in the Eurozone

The roots of the Euro area crisis can be traced back to at least the summer of 2007. Although not picked up by the credit rating agencies until much later, the probability of default on sovereign debt increased in parallel with clear macroeconomic misalignments. These misalignments include recession-triggered budget deficits, bailout-motivated fiscal measures,1 as well as country-specific strat...

Institutionalizing Eurozone Exit: A modified NEWNEY approach

Institutionalizing Eurozone Exit: A modified NEWNEY approach Steffen Huck, Justin Mattias Valasek* In this note, we argue that the Eurozone needs an institutional exit mechanism to enhance Eurozone stability, and propose modifications to the Dobbs' NEWNEY mechanism, the only mechanism that satisfies the twin properties of eliminating incentives for intra-Eurozone capital flight and maintaining ...